"Basic Strategy is the most statistically proven method to beat the house"
From The Desk Of The Gaming Guru 22/09/09
Trust me my readers, If YOU want to be beat the house, basic strategy and strict adherence to it is the only statistically proven method to get the best out of you blackjack experience
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Basic Strategy has been around for a very long time. It is simple to follow and extremely easy to understand. What I find very hard to forget is that why do gamers still not realise the advantages of using basic strategy and go on to make a rash decision based solely on gut instinct that makes them lose dearly and derails their school of thought. For instnance, how many times have you ever surrendered? Why not?
Basic Strategy is composed of sometimes illogical moves that are all statistically correct. Please remmber that in order to fully harness the advantages of using blackjack basic strategy you have to be able to separate statistically correct moves and ignore your gut feelings which may feel the logical move. Let me illustrate this further with an example, say you were dealt with a pair of nines and the dealer shows a 7, according to basic strategy, you have to 'stand', but what do 85% of blackjack players out there do? They split! Why? Because logically they think that they could make it two nineteens and the dealer makes it to only a mere 17. This is a risk taken solely on gut instcinct which may make you lose dearly because statistically, standing on two nines is the better move than splitting them.
One essential fact remains and that is that Blackjack is not a game of intuition, if dealers always play by set rules such as standing on 17's etc, why should you not do it? The house always manages to win because they dont play by gut feelings, they play by a set pf predetermined rules. Playing by a set of predetermined rules is an advantage of using blackjack basic strategy.
Skill breeds long-term luck. Many a person has argued that they refuse to use basic strategy because it predetermines that they will only win 47% of the hands they play, and that's just not good enough. Regardless of the fact that you may not win more than half of your hands, if you have bet more on the half that you have won, you're up.
Blackjack offers two delightful little bonuses. You get paid an extra half of your bet on natural blackjacks, and you get to put more money down on favorable doubles and splits. So what's my blackjack strategy? It's a combination of two things; the first is consistently sticking to basic strategy even if a streak has my brain believing statistics can be used to prove anything. 4 out of 5 people know that! The second is looking for favorable playing conditions to help me reduce the house edge.
To understand how playing conditions can contribute to your fortune, let's revisit the 'old strip' game, which was standard in Vegas until the mid eighties. It was played with a single deck, dealer stands on soft 17, double down on any two cards, no doubling after splitting, pairs can be split up to four times except aces, split aces only receive one additional card, no surrender rule. With these playing conditions, playing with perfect basic blackjack strategy brings the edge down to zero. Yup, zero. You're actually playing an even game, oh to have been able to get to Vegas in the early eighties... knowing what I know now of course.
To learn what rule anomalies can affect the edge (such that you can incorporate them into your own blackjack strategy) have a look at the following table:
Rule |
Effect on Player Expectation |
Two decks |
-0.32% |
Four decks |
-0.48% |
Six decks |
-0.54% |
Eight decks |
-0.58% |
Dealer hits soft 17 |
-0.20% |
Double down only on 11 (no soft, no 10, no 9, no 8) |
-0.78% |
Double down only on 10 or 11 (no soft, no 9, no 8) |
-0.26% |
Double down only on 9, 10, 11 (no soft, no 8) |
-0.14% |
No re-splitting of any pairs |
-0.03% |
Dealer wins ties |
-9.00% |
Natural pays 1 to 1 |
-2.32% |
Natural pays 2 to 1 |
+2.32% |
Double down on any number of cards |
+0.24% |
Double down after splitting pairs |
+0.14% |
Late surrender |
+0.06% |
Early surrender |
+0.62% |
Six-card winner |
+0.15% |
Players 21 pushes dealer's 10-up Blackjack |
+0.16% |
Re-splitting of aces |
+0.06% |
Draw to split aces |
+0.14% |
Now you know exactly what to look for and what to avoid when examining the specific rules of any blackjack table. A plus before the number in the right hand column is good for you, the player; a negative is good for the house.
The important thing to remember is that nearly all of the basic strategy rules are indisputable in the long run, but it is the long run that defines them. Only in the long run will the stats work out with any consistency, and basic blackjack strategy can only be said to be truly beneficial if you're playing for an extended period. Is this true? How can math only be valid over time? The finite nature of mathematical science dictates that a particular playing decision, based on the player's cards and the dealer's exposed card, will yield a predictable outcome after millions of hands of play. But at the same time, the prediction it makes is always applicable to the 'next' hand played, meaning there is a greater chance the prediction will be right than wrong, just no guarantee. So following this basic blackjack strategy truly is your best decision. Using basic strategy, you will eliminate the normal 5 or so percent advantage the casino has over the unskilled player. With perfect basic strategy play, the house advantage can dip as low as 0.5 percent. That is less than a 1 percent disadvantage to the player. This is why blackjack can be one of the most profitable games to play in a casino. But be wary of games such as this where the house edge is a variable, it means you have to be a smart player, utilize a consistent blackjack strategy, and pay attention. The casinos are experts at distraction .
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